MUBARAK AND FAHD TRYING TO CALM ASSAD
Analysis by Semadar Peri - "Yediot", 29 Dec 1994, p. 3.
It is not clear what exactly will come out of the three-way summit held
yesterday in Alexandria. Israel will certainly not like the outcome.
President Assad initiated the well-planned drama; Mubarak provided guest
services, and King Fahd came with his wallet. In the end, Mubarak and Fahd
tried to placate President Assad, who fears the Arab rush into Israel's
lap. King Hassan of Morocco, Sultan Qaboos of Oman, King Hussein, the
President of Tunisia, the Sheikh of Qatar, and the leader of the United
Arab Emirates all of these men have left Assad behind, and the Golan
Heights still seem far from his grasp.
The Syrian attempt to portray the summit as a means by which Saddam
Hussein would be brought back into the fold of the Arab nation, was
designed to create the impression that it was a significant step, rather
than actually having content, but such a step has a slim chance with Fahd
and Mubarak. These two have very complicated scores to settle with Saddam
Hussein.
This summit is not a surprise meeting. It was planned at the most senior
levels amidst the highest secrecy already three weeks ago. Since
this morning, the expressions "historic summit" and "decisive meeting"
have been ringing in our ears. The real decisions there will remain
secret, despite speculations by the journalists who were suddenly called
to the gates of the Ras A'tin Palace in Alexandria.
A scenario: Assad sought practical advice from Mubarak and Fahd: how to
stop the outbreak of normalization with Israel. The most reasonable
response would be a series of threats, mainly verbal, towards any Arab
country that would dare to proceed too fast or, to be more precise,
faster than Syria in establishing relations with Israel.
But the importance of the Alexandria summit is also in who was not invited
to it. King Hussein who publicly received another knock-out punch from
Mubarak over the peace agreement with Israel at this time was not
invited. Arafat was also not invited, not only because it is impossible to
sit Arafat and Assad together in one room, but mainly because of his low
political standing in the Arab world.
This summit will give rise to more insulted people in the Arab world, such
as Muammar Qaddafi the rumors of his arrival were exposed as premature
and the President of Yemen, whose entreaties to receive an invitation
to Cairo were unsuccessful.
Israel, as was previously stated, will not like the decisions made in
Alexandria. But even if a call is issued to summon the 22 leaders of the
Arab world, the three conferees are well-aware that it would be difficult
for them to produce a significant decision from such an expanded forum,
which suffers from chronic differences of opinion. If it were possible to
convene them as in "the good old days", and jointly make practical
decisions against Israel, Israel's situation would be much worse off.