On the Verge of Explosion
Analysis by Alex Fishman - "Ma'ariv", 21 Dec 1994, p. 2.
The tense quiet which prevailed yesterday on the northern border is
illusory. It was just like the television pictures which showed IDF
artillery pieces moving into the security zone, i.e. it does not indicate
what will happen there today.
We have been in this situation before maybe too many times in recent
years. Operation Accountability was discussed three times. During the first
two instances, the discussions were accompanied by pictures of
reinforcements moving northward. But on the third occasion when they had
already begun shooting the cameras omitted the reinforcement stage.
Meanwhile, both sides on both sides of the red line are flexing their
muscles. The prudent and experienced among the residents in the Lebanese
villages north of the security zone are already packing a small suitcase.
Maybe this time too, as in the past, there will be two or three days of
relative quiet, the north will fade from the headlines, and we will again
become addicted to the illusion of "business as usual." But, under the
table, plans and counter-plans will continue to be formulated. The northern
border is already on a course leading to the breaking of the current rules
of the game.
The interests which were the basis of the understandings reached after
Operation Accountability have exhausted themselves. Hizbullah is reading the
political map and is fearful regarding its position in Lebanon. A military
confrontation with Israel would serve it just fine. Israel which must
respond to the escalation cannot continue to be restrained by these
understandings, which are harming our soldiers and gnawing away at the
security zone.
The explosion which will change the rules of the game is only a question of
time. It could occur within days or weeks.
Two main paths diverge from the track on which we are moving. The first a
nod to public opinion is a gut decision in favor of some kind of military
operation in response to the painful attacks. This decision would, perhaps,
provide several weeks of calm; but, in the end, we would be back where we
started. The second is an ordered, consistent, long-range, plan which would,
for example, systematically deal with the terrorists' support bases in the
villages north of the security zone, and which would take into account the
possibility that Katyusha rockets might also fall for a certain time on the
communities in the Galilee.
But, in the end, there is a reasonable chance that terrorism will be pushed
back to a tolerable level for a longer stretch of time by setting new
rules of the game.