OPERATION GRAPES OF WRATH - 15-Apr-96

SELECTED ANALYSES FROM THE HEBREW PRESS

15 April 1996

ANALYSIS by Alex Fishman - "Yediot", 15 April 1996, pp. 1, 19

The pleasant weather which prevailed yesterday permitted a new page to be turned in the "Grapes of Wrath" operations book: placing pressure on the Lebanese government.

If, in the first three days, indirect pressure was applied to the Lebanese government by means of striking at Hizbullah installations in Beirut and the expulsion of the population of southern Lebanon, yesterday's attack on the transformer in Jumhur which blacked out several neighborhoods in Beirut is already direct and crude pressure.

The strike at civilian infrastructure in Lebanon is the highest step which "Grapes of Wrath" intended to reach. And from here on, military activity will continue more or less within the same parameters, that is, continued expulsion of the population, annoying artillery fire, aerial closure, strikes at Hizbullah targets by attack helicopters, and continued strikes at strategic Lebanese targets.

The inclusion of Tyre in the framework of the mass expulsion is an indication of the stalemate which we are in with the enemy, on the fourth day of the operation. The Lebanese government which, up until now, has refused to be impressed by the IDF activity blocked the route of the southern refugees' route to Beirut, and they have gathered in Tyre. The inclusion of Tyre in the line of fire is the Israeli answer to the indifference of the Lebanese government: precisely to push them into Beirut.

According to security officials in Israel, Hizbullah members in the south, have an arsenal of no more than a few hundred Katyushas. Thus, if replenishments have not arrived recently from the north, it is reasonable to assume that the pace of launches by the terrorists will decrease, and not necessarily due to the air and ground blockade. It is a matter of mathematics. If approximately 90 Katyushas have been fired since the beginning of the operation, they will now start to conserve their fire.

It is precisely during the peak of the air force's success in Lebanon which deserves all due praise that it is also important to note that if "Grapes of Wrath" indeed enters a routine that will continue for some time, the air force will be unable to continue serving as the exclusive instrument for operating the military levers.

In the last two days, until yesterday evening, the air force had made 242 sorties over Lebanon. This shows that the air force is only exercising a very small proportion of its capability. From the aerial point of view, this is a very relaxed effort, which is apparently being influenced by political and humanitarian limitations on not attacking the civilian population.

The surgical strikes are genuinely professional and very impressive, but this is an air force which is barely in first gear. When Peres met combat helicopter pilots yesterday, the commanders told him that the younger pilots were concerned they they will not get to fly. Thus, the helicopter pilots are finding time to fly, but at an easy pace.

Before Thursday, this operation will begin to be seen as an arena prepared and ready for the political bargaining to begin. Now, this is a war of nerves.

HITTING THE ECONOMIC INFRASTRUCTURE Commentary by Ze'ev Schiff - "Ha'aretz", 15 April 1996 - pp. 1, 8

Operation "Grapes of Wrath" reached a new peak yesterday when in conjunction with Israeli pressure to leave Tyre and other communities, thereby increasing the northward stream of refugees the IAF hit a transformer in Beirut. With this, the campaign was broadened to [include] striking at the economic infrastructure in northern Lebanon, with the goal of hastening the pressure on Hizbullah to stop firing Katyushas at communities in the Galilee.

The decision to escalate the operation can be seen as an Israeli attempt to spur the governments of Lebanon and Syria to pressure Hizbullah. Israel has no interest in destroying the Lebanese economy, but at the moment the only way to insure that the levers of pressure from the Arab side will be exerted on Hizbullah, is to pressure its government. This is the reason why the IDF warned the residents of Tyre which is one of the largest cities in southern Lebanon to leave their homes. Instead of causing a gradual evacuation, the IDF is forcing a massive, quick evacuation. The massive accumulation of refugees in Beirut during Operation Accountability in July '93, led the Syrians to pressure Hizbullah which also suffered dozens of losses to halt the attacks.

This consideration was also behind the decision to attack the Lebanese transformer in Jumhur, but there was an additional consideration as well: retribution for the harm done to the Israeli economic infrastructure in the Galilee. After Israel announced that its response to the attacks on Kiryat Shmona will be in all of Lebanon, including Beirut, it did not spare the Lebanese capital in its selection of objectives. In its attack yesterday, Israel refrained from decisively destroying the transformer station. It was satisfied with a limited attack, this being a kind of warning that if the attacks continue on Israel's economic infrastructure, the air force will attack this station and others, as well as other economic objectives.

Beirut was the objective for an additional air force attack, when helicopters struck the offices of Hizbullah's intelligence and security apparatus. These offices are located in a multi-story building in the southern part of the Lebanese capital, and the attack was carried out with several missiles that penetrated the appropriate floor. The Lebanese claim that they saw one of the Israeli helicopters take off from a missile boat, sailing along the Lebanese coast off Beirut.

In conjunction with these attacks, the heavy artillery fire, and the additional sorties against objectives in southern Lebanon, yesterday the government hinted at its willingness to halt the fighting. The statements were very general; when the Cabinet Secretary announced after the weekly cabinet meeting that if Hizbullah stops firing, Israel will also stop, or, in statements made by Shimon Peres, if the Lebanese Prime Minister is talking about a peaceful resolution, he should come and talk about peace. But it appears that this stage is not yet ripe.

WHEN WILL WE KNOW THAT THE OBJECTIVES HAVE BEEN ACHIEVED? Analysis by Brig.-Gen. (Res.) David Agmon - "Ma'ariv", 15 April 1996, p. 3

Operation "Grapes of Wrath," today enters its fifth day. Yesterday was characterized by an intensification of the struggle - and by expanded activities by both sides.

Hizbullah fired more than ten Katyusha salvos at the Galilee and the border communities. The organization is trying to prove that the IDF activities against it, not only have not weakened its capabilities, but the opposite - it is capable of hitting Israel with tens of Katyushas, as Sheik Hassan Nasrallah promised.

Hizbullah's infrastructure in southern Lebanon has still not suffered a decisive blow: its fighters are hidden within the villages and their environs, they have weapons caches, ammunition, equipment and enough food to last for several more days of fighting. Apparently, their morale has also not yet fallen.

The IDF yesterday attacked a very wide arc of installations and targets. Beirut and the Beka valley are still strategic sites, but this time, in addition to attacking the buildings of Hizbullah's security apparatus in Beirut, infrastructure installations were also hit, such as the transformer station. The objective of the attacks: increasing the pressure on the Lebanese government, and through it, on Syria. The IDF also expanded the extent of its activities in the south, up to the Litani River, by moving the residents in a sector which includes the city of Tyre and the villages to the east and north of it. These were the villages in which Hizbullah's southern headquarters were located - and were, until now, outside the parameters of IDF activity.

The struggle is intensifying, but contains no surprises. It must be assumed that the IDF took into account that the situation would become harsher, and that its activities would intensify. Apparently, Hizbullah will continue to launch Katyushas continuously, in an attempt to cause painful damage to the population of the north, as a way of demonstrating a firm and unyielding line, and its ability to carry out ongoing operations. This, in the hope that the pressure on the residents of the north on one hand, together with Arab and international pressure on the other, will bring about an end to the IDF's attacks, without them having achieved decisive results.

From an operational standpoint, the IDF has no limitations on continuing to carry out continuing operations. The air force, artillery and tanks still have a wide variety of targets and sites to attack. The IDF can expand its area of operations in southern Lebanon to the Awali River, to include both the city of Sidon and the villages of Aklim al-Tufakh, south-west of Jezzine, as well as to strike at other infrastructure targets, more important than those which were hit yesterday.

The problem which will face the Government of Israel will be to put off pressure to cease its activities internal political pressures and external international political pressure. Most of all, it will have to support the residents of the confrontation line, so that they will give the IDF sufficient time to complete its activities.