OPERATION GRAPES OF WRATH - 16-Apr-96

SELECTED ANALYSES FROM THE HEBREW PRESS 16 April 1996

FIGHTING WILL CONTINUE DURING NEGOTIATIONS Analysis by Ze'ev Schiff - "Ha'aretz", 16 April 1996, p. 1

Washington is interested in taking advantage of the crisis in Lebanon to achieve a broad political end, and is attempting to expand the area of its mediation, so that it will not only lead to a ceasefire in the north, but also an agreement between Israel and Syria regarding resumption of the peace talks between them. Nevertheless, its representatives say that they do not intend to impose their proposals on the parties, since the matter depends upon agreement between Jerusalem and Damascus. There is readiness in both capitals to positively respond to these proposals.

The negotiations designed to reach these goals were mainly carried out via ambassadors and telephone conversations between the various capitals. Israel has already been called upon to pass along its demands for a ceasefire, and a similar request was made to Damascus, which certainly turned immediately to Hizbullah. According to the assessment, Damascus also reported the American steps to Teheran.

These contacts are likely to continue for several days. More than a few difficulties are certainly anticipated, and during this time, the fighting will go on. In the meantime, the Iranians have even increased their pressure on Damascus to supply Hizbullah with a large number of additional Katyusha rockets, so that it can withstand the pressure of the Israeli attacks. Generally, Teheran transfers arms and weapons designated for terrorists through the Damascus airport, since Syria does not permit the direct transfer of Iranian arms to Beirut.

Yesterday, discussions were held among senior military and political officials regarding conditions which Israel must present to Hizbullah in exchange for its willingness for a ceasefire. At the beginning of this operation, Israel claimed that it views the understandings reached after Operation Accountability as void, since Hizbullah put an end to them. Despite this, the Syrians have told the Americans that they are prepared to work to reestablish the validity of the old understandings, provided that both sides abide by them. Apparently, Israel will demand a broadening of the understandings into a more comprehensive ceasefire, even though there are ministers who think that a stronger assurance that the old 1993 agreements would be kept, would be sufficient. According to them, it is more important to guarantee the resumption of the comprehensive negotiations with Syria, even if it this takes place after the elections.

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NOT BACK TO OLD UNDERSTANDINGS Commentary by Ya'akov Erez - "Ma'ariv", 16 April 1996, pp. 1, 2

A war has been waged in southern Lebanon for a long time. We nicknamed it the "forgotten war," because it was carried on far from public awareness, out of range of the communities of the north, and aroused anxiety only among the families of the soldiers who served there or are serving there now. Whenever there was a shooting incident and IDF soldiers were injured, Israel was reminded that there was fighting across the northern border, even when there was a lull in launching Katyushas at communities in the north, and Hizbullah kept the understandings achieved at the end of "Operation Accountability."

Now, with the first diplomatic soundings that began in the wake of "Operation Grapes of Wrath," we must not forget the "forgotten war." It must be remembered that this was the only section of the border in which the enemy operated, and the IDF paid with the lives of its soldiers. The measured activities of "Operation Grapes of Wrath" brought the initiative into Israel's hands, from which it must not drop.

In Israel, and throughout the world, there are efforts to pressure Prime Minister Shimon Peres to be content with the former understandings. These are the same understandings that Hizbullah interpreted in a manner which granted it freedom of action to operate against IDF and SLA soldiers in the security zone. Among those trying to influence the prime minister are a number of ministers in the government who are concerned that the operation will be extended, and who seek to achieve a quick resolution. They are ready to make do with the former understandings. The unwritten slogan of "Operation Grapes of Wrath," from the start, has been patience and forbearance. Militarily, we have all the time in the world. From the operational perspective, this is almost luxurious.

Prime Minister and Defense Minister Shimon Peres took care to exhaust all diplomatic alternatives before launching this initiative. He approved and supported the IDF's program of stages, as well as its criteria. He did not designate a date to end the operation, and did not impose demands for its resolution. Peres holds the initiative in his hands, and it is up to him to exploit it to the fullest. He should not make do with what was, with understandings whose collapse he is not responsible for. He should not stop firing in return for the renewed understandings of "Operation Accountability."

In order to ensure the security and tranquility of the communities in the north, and the soldiers of the IDF, the political decision must be based upon today's extensive military activity. Meaning: an overall ceasefire which protects the communities in the north, and the positions of the IDF and the SLA, in any agreement that is achieved.