ECONOMIC SURVEY
December 7, 1998
(Communicated by GPO Economics Desk)
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTOR:
* MAIN ECONOMIC INDICATORS FOR SEPT.- OCT. 1998
The Central Bureau of Statistics reports that there was a growth in the
exports of goods and income from tourism. Imports of cars and industrial
equipment rose by 7-8%, following a 6% rise in July-August.. Industrial
production rose at an annual rate of 2%, after remaining stable for the
previous three months. Imports for factory inputs (excluding fuel) fell by
4% in October, following a 6-7% decline in April-September 1998. Retail
prices fell in September (after taking seasonal changes into account),
after rising in July-August. Marketing chain sales (a quarter of all
retail sales) rose by approximately 9% in September-October, reflecting
changes in the retail markets.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of
Statistics - David Neumann, 972-2-65553400
* THIRD QUARTER EXPORTS AND IMPORTS
Export of goods (excluding diamonds and exports to Judea, Samaria and
Gaza) rose by 6% in October, after declining in May-September. Diamond
exports continued their decline which began in mid-1997 due to the world's
economic crisis. Export prices (excluding diamonds) declined by 1.1% in
the third quarter of 1998, continuing the declines of 0.7% and 1.8% in the
first and second quarters, respectively. Due to the decline in current
prices, export prices were $500 million less.
The import of goods (excluding diamonds, fuel, ships and planes) continued
the decline that began in February 1998. As a result, Israel's trade
deficit (excluding diamonds, fuel, ships and planes) declined, reaching
$349 million in October, or $4.2 billion in annual terms, and 45% of the
trade deficit at the beginning of 1996. The price of imports (excluding
fuel and diamonds) declined by 2% in the third quarter of 1998, continuing
the decline of 1.8% and 0.4% in the first and second quarters,
respectively. In real prices, imports increased by 3.5% in the first 3/4
of 1998, compared to the same period in 1997, but due to the decline in
current prices, there was a decline of 0.5%.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of Statistics - David Neumann, 972-2-65553400
* TAX INCOME UP IN 1998
The Finance Ministry reports that government income from taxes since the
beginning of 1998 has amounted to NIS 105.8 billion, an increase of 1.2%
in real terms compared to the same period last year. Income and property
tax revenue was NIS 58.5 billion, a 1.9% rise in real terms over the same
period in 1997; customs duties amounted to NIS 44.7 billion, (0.5%
increase); collection of government bonds rose by 1.6% over the comparable
period in 1997.
(http://www.mof.gov.il)
Finance Ministry - Eli Yosef,
972-2-5317201
* FOREIGN CURRENCY RESERVES RISE IN THIRD QUARTER
The Bank of Israel reports that Israel's foreign currency reserves
increased by $565 million in November, and stand at $22,479 million. The
change was due mainly to receiving civilian aid that partially offset
current government expenses. (http://www.bankisrael.gov.il) Bank of Israel
- Gabi Fishman, 972-2-6552712
* EXCHANGE RATE DATA
The Central Bureau of Statistics reported that at the end of November
1998, most exchange rates were lower than at the end of October. The
Dollar stood at NIS 4.1910 (-1.4%), the Japanese Yen was 6.5% lower, The
Swiss Franc -5.2%, the German Mark -4.1%. The basket of currencies fell by
2.5% in November and stood at 4.5537 at the end of the month. In the first
10 months of 1998, the Dollar exchange rate rose by 18.5%.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of Statistics - David Neumann,
972-2-65553400
* BANK OF ISRAEL INTEREST RATES TO REMAIN UNCHANGED
The Bank of Israel announced on 23.11.98 that as part of its monetary plan
for December 1998, the bank interest rate would remain unchanged at 13.5%.
The decision was made in order to examine the effects of the November's
interest rate increases and in order to lower the rate of inflation in
order to meet the 1999 annual inflation target of 4%, as decided upon by
the Cabinet. The Bank of Israel also announced that as of 1.1.99, treasury
bonds may be issued to the public in Israel and abroad directly, without
brokers or banks acting as intermediaries. The step is part of the Bank's
plans to improve debt management and bond trading.
(http://www.bankisrael.gov.il)
Bank of Israel - Gabi Fishman,
972-2-6552712
* LABOR FORCE SURVEY AND WAGES
The Central Bureau of Statistics reports that in the third quarter of 1998
the work force numbered 2,298,000, a 2.4% increase over the same period in
1997. The number of employed persons in the third quarter was 2,094,000;
unemployed persons numbered 205,000 (8.9% of the work force; unemployment
among men was 8.2% and among women, 9.7%). Taking seasonal factors into
account, unemployment in the third quarter was 8.4%, compared to 8.8% in
the second quarter and 7.8% in the third quarter of 1997.
Employment by sectors is as follows with the percent change over the same
period of 1997: health services -- 201,000 (+9%); education -- 258,000
(+6.7%), business services -- 215,000 (+6%); vehicle services and repair
-- 271,000 (+3%); industry -- 392,000 (-1.5%); construction -- 132,000
(-11%); public administration -- 111,000 (-3%). The number of hours per
work was 37.1, a decline of 2.4% over 1997 and following a rise of 1.6% in
the comparable period of 1996.
The Central Bureau of Statistics reports that in the third quarter of 1998
that real wages rose by an average of 2.4% compared to the same period in
1997. Total average gross payment to a salaried employee (excluding
employees from Judea, Samaria, Gaza and Southern Lebanon, but including
registered foreign workers) was NIS 6,100. Sectoral changes over the
comparable period in 1997 were as follows: industry 6.7%; business
services 5.5%; agriculture 5%; construction 4.5%; transportation, retail
and wholesale 4%; public administration 3.7%; community, social and
personal services 3.1%; and education 1.8%.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of Statistics - David Neumann, 972-2-65553400
* TOURISM IN OCTOBER 1998
The Central Bureau of Statistics reports that there were 227,000 visitors
to Israel in October, including 191,000 tourists and 36,000 visitors from
cruises. A total of 1,838,000 visitors have arrived in Israel between
January and October 1998.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of
Statistics - David Neumann, 972-2-65553400
* COMMERCE AND SERVICES REVENUE AND MANUFACTURING PRODUCTION RISE; HOUSING
STARTS FALL Early estimates show that the revenue from commerce and
services has risen at an annual rate of between 1- 1.5%, as compared to
1997, the Central Bureau of Statistics reports, based on figures up to
September. Industrial production is expected to increase by 2.5- 3.0% in
1998, as compared to 1997, according to preliminary figures. By contrast,
new housing starts declined in the first nine months of 1998 -- 30,240, as
compared to 40,300 and 41,110 in the comparable periods of 1997 and 1996,
respectively. 22,835 were in private construction and 7,405 in public
housing. Third quarter starts were 10.085, as compared to 9,005 in the
second quarter.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of Statistics -
David Neumann, 972-2-65553400
GOVERNMENT SECTOR
* LOCAL GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS BUDGET DEFICIT
The budget deficit for local government operations in November was NIS
1,391 million (NIS 1,383 million including credit). Since the beginning of
the year, the budget deficit for local government operations amounts to
NIS 6,571 million (or NIS 5,238 including credit).
(http://www.mof.gov.il)
Finance Ministry - Eli Yosef, 972-2-5317201
TEL AVIV STOCK EXCHANGE DEVELOPMENTS IN NOVEMBER
The Tel Aviv Stock Exchange showed conflicting trends during November,
declining during the first half of the month by 2.7% and then rising by
7.8% for an overall rise of 4.9% in October. The TA-100 rose by 5.8% and
the Maof-25 by 6.4%. Other stocks rose by 1.8%, according to the Central
Bureau of Statistics. The General Index for Bonds declined by 1.2%, after
rising in October. Trading for November totaled NIS 9 billion (compared to
NIS 7.3 in October), excluding offsets and trades outside the exchange.
(http://www.cbs.gov.il)
Central Bureau of Statistics - David Neumann,
972-2-65553400