HIZBALLAH-S FEE - 24-Dec-98

HIZBALLAH'S FEE

(Commentary by Ron Ben Yishai, "Yediot Ahronot", Dec 24, 1998 p.4)

The Hizballah leaders and Syrian generals have feared for the past several weeks that Israel was seeking a pretext in order to attack Lebanon. They therefore restrained their response to the sonic booms made by Israeli jets over Beirut.

The Shi'ite organizations have an obligation not to embarrass their Syrian patron who signed the Grapes of Wrath understandings. They also have an obligation to avoid suffering for the village population in Lebanon, in whose midst they operate, as much as possible. But when the information came in of an attack deep within the Beqa'a Valley, and especially when they learned that a woman and her six children had been killed, the Hizballah leaders requested a green light from Syria to respond. They asked and they got it. Hizballah and Amal have a fixed price list, simple and brutal, according to which they respond to what their leaders perceive as violations by Israel and the South Lebanese Army of the Grapes of Wrath understandings. The price list has two basic levels, using the old Biblical operating principle "an eye for an eye":

* Damage to a Lebanese village without casualties, or if the number of casualties are few and the wounds light -- Hizballah and Amal respond with heavy mortar and Katyusha fire on Christian villages and IDF outposts inside the security zone. Sometimes, isolated shells are directed at Israeli border communities, as a warning.

* When the IDF and SLA fire is not massive, or when it occurs during fighting and directed solely at the sources of Hizballah's fire, and when the IDF and SLA have suffered casualties -- there might be no response at all.

* Damage to major towns and Lebanese civilians -- when the IDF or SLA shell an important Lebanese town, Sidon for example, and in the event that there are dead and wounded Lebanese civilians -- the Shi'ite organizations will respond with Katyusha fire on Israeli communities. Generally, if it is an isolated incident initiated by Israel, or an attack caused by an error that Israel admits to, Hizballah will respond with a number of concentrated, heavy Katyusha barrages intended to cause as heavy losses as possible, followed by a cease- fire. If Israel continues -- so does Hizballah.

The timing for the Katyusha launch was determined by logistical and operational considerations. The organization's staff cannot launch a heavy barrage with little warning. They have to call up the professionals from their homes, take the launchers out of their storerooms in the Beqa'a Valley and bring them to the launch point, prepare the rockets and fire them. They cannot do this in daylight, for fear that Israeli intelligence equipment will locate and hit them. They therefore make their preparations at night, completing them in the pre-dawn hours. Operational considerations also dictate a morning launch, after the Galilee residents having spent a night in their bomb shelters, leave them for fresh air or to carry out essential work, thus providing a greater opportunity to cause casualties. These are apparently the reason that Katyusha fire fell during the early morning hours this time as well.