Note: The translations of articles from the Hebrew press
are prepared by the Government Press Office
as a service to foreign journalists in Israel.
They express the views of the authors.
Collapse
(Commentary by Ehud Sprinzak, "Yediot Ahronot", May 18, 1999, p. A22)
From analysis of the exit poll results, a similar situation to that which
followed '92 may be perceived. Then the right did not decline in its
general strength, but the loss of government smashed it to pieces. In my
opinion, Shas and the religious parties may also be included in the
right-wing bloc today, after they called so plainly for Netanyahu's
election. The religious parties clearly abandoned the centrist, pragmatic
line and identified almost completely with Netanyahu. It may also be noted
that Shas's increased strength derives from the fact that its additional
seats came almost certainly from the traditional Likud voters.
This is a terrible collapse for the Israeli right. Not because of the
weakening of the Likud, but rather because of the loss of power. Shas too,
which significantly grew in strength, loses strength in the larger
picture, since it has lost the closeness to government that it enjoyed
under Netanyahu.
Soon it will be possible to note a move of the right toward Barak. They
will suddenly remember that Barak said that the settlement of Beit El will
stay in place if he comes to power. Forces from the moderate right will
have to move toward Barak so as not to disappear from the political map.
With regard to the future of the ideological right, I would not be
inclined to pronounce its demise just yet. Many have buried it in the
past, and it has always turned out that the reports of its death were
premature and without foundation.
With regard to Barak, it may be said that he has learned a lot from the
mistakes of Yitzhak Rabin. He will not want to push the rightist parties
to the fringes. Elements such as Rabbi Melchior and Rabbi Bin-Nun will
become the mediators with the parties of the right, and will bring them
into a broad coalition. The settlers of Judea and Samaria have nothing to
fear from Barak. The channeling of money for settlement in the territories
will end, but it may be assumed that Barak will not move any settlement
created during the Netanyahu period from its place.
Barak's policy will decide to a great extent the possibility of violence
within Israel in the coming years. If he tries to bring the parties of the
right toward the consensus, he will be able to harness their supporters
for his purposes, without dividing the nation.