Deploy- Without Panic - 18-Feb-99

Deploy, Without Panic

(Commentary by Ron Ben-Yishai, "Yediot Ahronot", Feb 18, 1999, pp.1-19)

PKK-supporting Kurds around the world suffered a heavy emotional shock when their leader was captured; many view Ocalan as a father figure and national prophet. It is thus not surprising that his Turkish captivity had caused hundreds of them to lose their emotional balance, motivating them to seek guilty parties.

Israel, as an ally of hated Turkey, automatically became a scapegoat together with the United States, Greece and Kenya. Yesterday's bloody incident at the Israeli consulate in Berlin brings Israel to the top of the list, and Israeli security officials must now seriously address the implicit threats being made by the Kurds (and prepare for the possibility that the Kurds may make good on their words).

The PKK tends to attack two types of targets diplomatic missions and tourism facilities, where our defensive efforts must be concentrated. Had their been bars on the windows of the Israeli consulate in Berlin, as on our Bonn embassy and other locations, the guards would not have been forced to open fire on the invading Kurds. Had the German police bolstered security at the consulate, as logic dictated, it is doubtful that the demonstrators would have been able to even enter the courtyard outside the consulate.

The Israeli diplomats in Germany had cause for concern. The German news agency was first to hypothesize that the Mossad had assisted in Ocalan's capture. Therefore, the Israeli government must now demand that governments in Europe and anywhere else there are large Kurdish and Turkish communities increase their intelligence-gathering efforts and their defense of Israeli missions and facilities. These measures must be extensive, at least until the Ocalan affair ends.

But we should not panic. The PKK's international terrorist infrastructure is not large or sophisticated. In Turkey, the PKK is in decline, under heavy pressure from the local security forces. And outside Turkey where most of its terrorist-trained operatives are based - - the organization is weak, and lacking the quantities of weapons and explosives required for large-scale attacks.

The arrest of their leader will also impair their ability to launch attacks. And their great hope to prevent Ocalan's execution will depend on the pressure that the international community exerts on Turkey where terrorist attacks will have an adverse effect on Europe's willingness to help. Kurdish leaders know this, and even said as much during their talks with European leaders yesterday.

Moreover, since its inception 14 years ago, the PKK has taken pains not to become entangled with Israel. Although Ocalan has operated under Syrian sponsorship, and received considerable assistance from Hizballah and Palestinian rejectionist organizations, he has ensured that the PKK not attack Israeli citizens or installations so that Israel not become an active enemy, rendering aid to the Turks in their war against his organization.

PKK operatives are aware of the help that Israel lent to the Kurdish struggle in Iraq, and view Israel as quasi- sympathetic. Israel knows this, and its security establishment has scrupulously avoided involvement in the internal Turkish conflict. And yet, the possibility of individual acts of desperation must certainly be taken into account over the coming days.