CHAPTER TWO
DEVELOPMENT TRENDS
"Build ye houses, and dwell therein;
and plant gardens, and eat their
fruit."
Jeremiah XXIX:5
POPULATION
Demographic Trends
Israel has followed an unique and extraordinary path of demographic
evolution during the four and a half decades since independence. As
shown on the immigration graph (Figure 1), geopolitical developments
worldwide have caused a steady but variable influx of Jewish immigrants
to Israel, peaking in the late 1940s and early 1950s, and rising sharply
in the late 1980s. Before the establishment of the State, and in the
years immediately following, immigration was principally from Europe.
Then, in the 1950s, a tide of North African and Middle Eastern
immigrants put Jews of European origin for the very first time in
the minority among immigrants (Figure 2). Until the late 1980s
immigration declined steadily, and was in some years even exceeded by
emigration.
As Figure 1 demonstrates, this declining trend was reversed dramatically
as Jews began arriving from the former communist bloc of Eastern and
Central Europe. Between 1989 and 1991 the number of these refugees
reached 400,000, increasing the Israeli population by 10%. It is
anticipated that the flow of immigrants will decrease considerably by
the mid-1990s.
Forecasts are complicated by the heterogeneous nature of the population.
In most groups, natural growth rates are diminishing, with the exception
of the religiously observant populations. The birth rate in secular
families is higher than that of other developed countries, but is
slowing.
Immigration combined with natural growth means that, from today's
population of about 5 million, Israel could grow to double, or 10
million people by the year 2030. This doubling of population must
perforce be accompanied by an increased burden on all resources,
especially water. Thus the environmental impact of Israel's current
population trends will be significant.
Population Distribution
The three largest cities in Israel are Jerusalem (524,000 inhabitants),
Tel Aviv (340,000, with a metropolitan area of 1.78 million
inhabitants), and Haifa (246,000). These three cities and their
metropolitan areas house 56% of Israel's population. Cities of up to
200,000 inhabitants account for 32% of the country's population. Rural
settlements account for only 9.5%, down from 15% in the early '60s.
Until now, the number and size of rural settlements has not diminished;
but they have grown at a rate slower than that of the urban centers. New
agricultural settlements are not expected to be built, and some rural
settlements near the metropolitan areas will become urbanized.
By the 1980s, non-agricultural rural villages were springing up. No
longer dependent on the availability of arable land, these communal
settlements chose the hillsides and mountaintops of the Galilee. Some
residents of these settlements commute daily to work in the nearest
cities, while others have developed small agricultural and industrial
occupations such as the cultivation of herbs, organic agriculture, and
tourism. Today, 109 such settlements exist; although they account for
only 0.6% of the population, the environmental implications of their
location in sensitive, heretofore unpopulated areas, may have great
significance.
Efforts have been made by the Israeli government throughout the State's
existence to encourage a balanced distribution of the population. In an
effort to populate peripheral areas, especially in the Negev and
Galilee, development towns were established in the 1950s and '60s and
attracted, for the most part, new immigrants. However, these efforts
have met with only partial success. While average population density is
over 210 km2, most of Israel's population remains concentrated along the
coastal plain. In the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, where growth has been
greatest, population density exceeds 1,000 per square kilometer
(population trends in Tel Aviv are shown in Figures 3 and 4). This
figure is likely to double in the next decades. By contrast, population
growth in the development towns has virtually ground to a halt. Market
forces continue to oppose the government's efforts to draw population
away from the most crowded urban centers. Recently, the government has
limited its intervention to redistribution only where it can be
coordinated with employment targets. This high- density, increased
urbanization exacerbates environmental problems by usurping fertile
agricultural land, swelling runoff and subsequent loss of recharge to
the coastal aquifer, increasing groundwater and air pollution, and
aggravating traffic congestion.