Looking toward an era of peace, the prime minister noted the volatile nature of the Middle East, and stressed the need to build into every peace treaty some sort of marginal safety net in case of sudden changes in Arab states. He also dealt with the threats to regional stability that could emanate from the exterior ring countries, such as Iraq, Iran and Libya. He thought that Israel faced three threats to its security: the continued buildup of the armed forces of Arab and Muslim nations, the threat of terror and the continued Palestinian uprising (Intifada). Text:
Q: What risks are you willing to take for peace in the Middle East?
A: In the long run, risks must be taken for the sake of peace. Israel's problems in defense and peace are quite problematic because we live in an area in which there are no democracies. So even though we determined to try to reach peace treaties with our neighboring Arab countries, we risk changes in those governments. [It is very possible] that another regime would come that will not respect the agreements that had been signed. Therefore, we have to build into every peace treaty some sort of marginal safety net in case of a change in neighboring regimes.
Q: Does this marginal safety net you refer to mean a continuation of Israel's military buildups and modernization plans?
A: I don't see a major change in the near future in the way we allocate money and resources to the Israel Defense Forces... You have to bear in mind that in terms of numbers of divisions, squadrons of fighters and naval units, we are inferior to the numbers of combined forces of Arab countries and those who might join them in war. So it is the qualitative edge that Israel maintains that gives us the sense of security that we need with or without peace.
Q: But if Israel signed peace treaties with its Arab neighbors, could your country afford to reduce the tremendous sums it spends on military modernization and readiness?
A: I don't think that as a result of peace agreements that Arab countries [would] change dramatically their appropriation of money for their defense budgets. Every country has more than one threat in the region. Therefore, it is too early to start to speak about reducing the defense budget or the order of battle of the Israel Defense Forces.
Q: So peace with Israel's neighbors will not prompt changes to Israeli planning or doctrine?
A: First I must say we are in a very critical phase of negotiations... and it is way too soon to assume that our goal can be achieved. We have to solve the problem between us and the Palestinians in the territories. But even if all this will be achieved, it will be only with the inner ring of the neighboring Arab countries. It will not include the exterior ring of Iraq, Libya and Iran. We do not see in the foreseeable future... peace with the outer ring. Therefore, threats to Israel will continue to exist.
Q: What do you believe is the biggest threat to Israeli security?
A: When you talk about Israel's security, you have to divide threat areas into three categories. First, for our national security, the threat comes from the armed forces of Arab and Muslim countries. We continue to build and improve our military strength to deter any temptation on the part of Arab countries to initiate war and if deterrence fails to be able to reach decisive results in the shortest time possible.
Q: And the last two categories of threats?
A: The second level comes from the threat of terror from the outside. Infiltration of terror groups from Arab countries against targets in Israel is a very real and present danger. This is part of our border clashes. In this category, there are ups and downs and changes in the makeup of the terror groups... and we must be prepared to fight this threat. The third category involves the Palestinian [uprising] and the terror that is carried out against the Israeli security forces in the [occupied] territories (and] against Israeli civilians on the sovereign soil of Israel.
Q: What specific military confidence-building measures are you willing to offer Israel's neighbors as you negotiate Mideast peace?
A: Governments of Israel have offered time and time again certain measures to reduce dangers posed by proliferation of nonconventional weaponry. Israel has offered to establish the Middle East as a zone free of nuclear and other mass destruction weapons based on bilateral agreements between Israel and countries in the region. We remain ready to do this. Secondly, the present Government of Israel signed the chemical warfare security arrangement in February. Therefore, we are ready for anything that will reduce the arms race. Our one stipulation is that these arrangements must not be left to the United Nations or international organizations. Rather, they must be based on bilateral agreements with all the relevant Arab and Islamic countries in the region.
Q: Do you think international organizations could play a useful role in supervising Mideast accords?
A: I have concluded that whenever there is an international force - United Nations or another form of international force - their activities must be based on a bilateral agreement between Israel and a neighboring Arab country. These groups will work well as long as the agreements are kept by the signatories. [That is why] the international forces established in the aftermath of Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Syrian [disengagement] agreements have worked effectively... That is also why another international force, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon [UNIFIL], has an impossible mission. UNIFIL is not based on any agreement between Israel and Lebanon. So while it fulfills certain roles, by no means can you compare its effectiveness to the other international groups I have referred to.
Q: How are you handling the recession in the Israeli defense industry?
A: We are in crisis in all our government-owned defense industries, whether it is Israel Military Industries, Israel Aircraft Industries or our central research and development organization. We are in the process of cutting the industry to match the changing circumstances and demands of the international arms market.
Q: So we can expect to see less Israeli exports on the world market?
A: We face a situation where the need for arms on the international market is being reduced tremendously. Defense budgets all over the world are being cut, no doubt by countries that are potential buyers of Israeli products. For the last 15 years, about 70 percent of Israel defense industry was export. This gave us a huge advantage in our capability to develop these defense industries and to reduce the cost of the arms that were bought for our own use.
Q: How realistic are Israeli plans to privatize its government-owned defense industry?
A: I [hope] that there will be somebody who will buy the shares of our defense industries. So far I can't find anyone who is ready to do it.
Q: Is Israel's military satellite program still a top priority?
A: You know that Israel has decided to enter into the space business; for civilian purposes and [possibly] for other purposes too, including military purposes. It is an ongoing project and I will not elaborate about it.