The Last Chance Article by Deputy Defense Minister Ephraim Sneh
(The Washington Post, Thursday, July 13, 2000)
The Camp David summit is the last chance for an Israeli-Palestinian
peace agreement. This summit must succeed; its failure is
inconceivable and would cause overwhelming despair for the Israeli
and Palestinian peoples.
The Israelis would respond to a failure by asking: "If the present
government couldn't achieve peace with the Palestinians, what
government could?" The staunchest supporters of and the most active
participants in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process make up Prime
Minister Ehud Barak's government. If even they fail, who will try
again?
On the Palestinian side, the failure to reach an agreement would aid
extremists, giving them the upper hand. Elements that oppose Yasser
Arafat would convince even more Palestinians that fighting, rather
than negotiating, is the effective way to attain national
objectives.
Despair would ignite violence, and violence is like a snowball. No
one knows exactly where it would stop. An eruption of Palestinian
violence would destroy the confidence of Israelis in the feasibility
of future reconciliation with their neighbors. The possibility of a
peace treaty's being approved in a referendum in Israel would surely
fade.
A violent crisis of the kind that could follow a failure at Camp
David would put an end to the Israeli-Palestinian dialogue, open a
new era of confrontation and quash the Palestinian dream. Even if the
Palestinians declared independence unilaterally, it would apply to
only 9 percent of the territory that they call Palestine and we call
Eretz Israel.
The Palestinian economy, which under conditions of peace could become
the fastest growing economy in the Arab world, would be doomed to
shrink. The annual GNP per capita in the West Bank and the Gaza strip
is currently $1,300 - 40 percent of which is derived from Palestinians
working in Israel. A summit failure, followed by a violent
confrontation, would cause a substantial reduction in the
Palestinian GNP, not only because of the closure of the Israeli labor market
but also because of the resulting flight of investors and
tourists.
The same applies to Israel's economy, though to a lesser extent.
Without a momentum of peace, the Israeli economy is also unable to
reach its ambitious goals.
The Palestinian leadership envisions not only sovereignty but also
a new, modern society with opportunities for the younger
generation. In a reality of permanent confrontation, this vision
cannot materialize.
I met with Yasser Arafat last week. No Palestinian has risked more
for the cause of peace than the Palestinian Authority chairman.
During our meeting we were informed of President Clinton's
announcement calling both Arafat and Barak to Camp David. I am under
the strong impression that Arafat shares a profound concern over the
outcome of the summit and the fate of the peace process with
Israelis. The gap between our positions and those of the Palestinians
is not a negligible one, but surely it is not unbridgeable either.
Israel can effectively defend itself alongside its eastern sector
without defying Palestinian interests. It is also possible to afford
Palestinian refugees a future of respectable living and economic
security, rather than feeding them illusory slogans. Reduction of the
friction between Israeli settlers and Palestinians is worth a
tolerable territorial price, and it is not incompatible with a viable
Palestinian state with territorial contiguity. Finally, we can share
a united, expanded Jerusalem without redividing it.
Peace is within our reach. If we miss it now, our children will not
forgive us.