SIGNS OF WEAKNESS
Analysis by Guy Bechor, "Ha'aretz", Dec 16, 1994, p.4
In recent days, senior Hizbullah leaders in Beirut have taken pains to
emphasize that their organization is not in a state of weakness or
inferiority, and that its recent military operations point to a surge in
the organization's standing within Lebanon. "What they are saying about
us, that we are on the verge of becoming bankrupt, is the hope of our
enemies, not a fact, " said Hizbullah spiritual leader Muhammad Hussein
Fadlallah in his Friday sermon.
Lebanese analysts say otherwise. They believe that Hizbullah has recently
been operating in a manner that indicates a growing concern over its
existence. As evidence of this, they point to statements by the
organization's leaders, in which they express concern over the
organization's fate, in light of the possibility of a peace arrangement
between Israel and Syria. In such a case, they say that the organization
would be dependent on the mercies of the regime in Damascus and the
strengthening Lebanese government, both of which currently support the
organization's operations.
The analysts say that Hizbullah is showing signs of a worsening strategic
distress, despite the tactical military victories that it has recently
scored against the SLA and the fundamental support that it enjoys among
the Lebanese Shi'ite population. It seems that Hizbullah, which strongly
opposes Arab peace with Israel, is already adapting its modus operandi,
and is preparing for such a peace.
It is possible to portray the recent attacks against the SLA the
attempt "to remove the SLA from the balance of power in southern Lebanon,"
according to Hizbullah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah as an example
of this preparation. The intention is to forestall a future situation in
which the Lebanese government would be obliged to disband Hizbullah in
southern Lebanon, in exchange for an Israeli commitment to disband the
SLA.
Hizbullah leaders are concerned by the hints being dropped for the first
time by the Lebanese government, according to which Hizbullah's military
operations could be seen to be prohibited "terrorism", and not as a
legitimate "national struggle". The Lebanese government has even decided
on a qualification to the 1991 general law on pardons, which grants
pardons for crimes committed during the Lebanese civil war. According to
the amendment, the law would not apply to the 1993 bombings of the U.S.
Marine headquarters and the U.S. Embassy. Those in Hizbullah fear that a
similar decision could be made regarding the abduction of the foreign
hostages.
The Hizbullah organization is having financial difficulties: aid from Iran
does not arrive continuously, and the fear of either a surprise bombing by
the Israeli Air Force or quiet Israeli action, is creating a serious
obstacle for its military actions. Additionally, the organization is in
the midst of several ideological disputes which are creating various camps
within the leadership.
The primary dispute revolves around how to organize after the peace
arrangement with Israel. An additional dispute concerns the question of
who will replace the Iranian Ayatollah Araki, who died recently, as the
supreme spiritual authority for the world's Shi'ites.