"Under Syrian Patronage"
- Analysis by Ron Ben Yishai, 'YEDIOT AHRONOT', March 22, 1994 (p.2)
The prominent wave of attacks in southern Lebanon was to be expected
from the time last week when Syria and Lebanon announced that they were
returning to the negotiating table with Israel.
The rising tension in the security zone serves not only Hizballah's
fundamental goals, but also Syria's and Lebanon's. They are concerned by
the international attention being focussed on the Israeli-Palestinian
negotiations while their interests are marginalized.
Therefore, we should not be surprised by the fact that, yesterday,
Hizballah initiated a day of fighting in southern Lebanon; obviously,
with Syria's tacit approval. Likewise, the IDF's and SLA's shelling in
response was also to be expected.
But due to the severity of the attacks, the artillery fire was
exceptionally heavy this time, and was even directed at targets that
[the IDF and SLA] refrain from attacking. If, in their anger, the SLA
gunners actually violated the agreement of last summer (Operation
Accountability), according to which, they would not shell civilian
settlements north of the security zone, and if a Lebanese child was
really killed as a result of this shelling, the Hizballah terrorists are
liable to see this as a pretext for escalation. That is, they are liable
to launch Katyushas at Israeli communities along the northern border.
An additional fact worthy of note is the exceptional success Hizballah
enjoyed yesterday. Last month, they set up an ambush in rough terrain
and killed four soldiers. This time as well, it was a planned ambush in
which we suffered losses. Is this mere luck? Is this testimony to the
steady improvement in the terrorists' operational abilities? It is
difficult to say. The possibility that the IDF and SLA forces were
caught yesterday in an area in which the terrorists were conducting
routine movements, which would have aided the attackers must be
thoroughly checked.