THERE IS NO CEASEFIRE
Commentary by Oded Granot, "Ma'ariv", 25 July 1995, p. 17
It is already clear now, that the relative relaxation in terrorist activities which has prevailed in recent months, was not a continuing phenomenon.
This illusion according to which terrorism was in continuous retreat was based on the combination of three components:
One, intensive activity by the security forces, which succeeded with the aid of good intelligence in foiling many attacks.
Two, the Palestinian Authority's increasing awareness that it must take more aggressive measures against Hamas and Islamic Jihad. And indeed, arrests were carried out in Gaza, and suspects did stand trial.
Three, we were very lucky.
But yesterday, this combination was not enough to prevent the murderous attack on the Dan bus at Elite Junction, and also proved that there was nothing substantial in the hints that were dropped by the Palestinian Authority, to the effect that an understanding had been reached with Hamas and Islamic Jihad to halt attacks inside Israel, at least until the implementation of the interim settlement.
It is true that there were contacts between the Authority and the Islamic opposition, but no agreement was reached. Also, the determination of Hamas and Islamic Jihad to continue acting against Israel has not dissipated, and it makes no difference exactly who was responsible for the attack: the "engineer" Yehia Ayash (by the way, there is no proof that he has succeeded in leaving the territories) or one of his students. Assembling a pipe bomb, such as the one which exploded yesterday, does not require the expertise of an engineer.
The extremist Islamic opposition has not laid down its weapons, and has not declared a ceasefire. Yesterday was the proof that it still has the power to mobilize volunteers for suicide actions. The timing of the attack at Elite Junction was very significant.
There is almost no doubt that those who planned the bombing of the bus made a great effort to have it occur this week, which included the date on which the interim settlement was to be signed. They believed that only a massive attack, with many casualties, was capable of derailing the signing ceremony; it would greatly embarrass the Palestinian Authority and, even more, would inflame the opposition among Israelis and settlers to the IDF's withdrawal from city centers on the West Bank.
This assessment was proven wrong yesterday when the Prime Minister announced that the attack would not stop the negotiations over the interim settlement. But Arafat, who condemned terrorism yesterday, must do more in order to convince Israel that he is able to foil terrorists from setting out from the areas that he will receive.