TERROR ATTACKS LIABLE TO ESCALATE
(Commentary by Alex Fishman, "Yediot", 17 Jan 1996, p. 1)
The ambush set last night north of Hebron, and which caused two casualties, is not the same type of revenge attack for which the security forces have prepared since the "Engineer" was killed. This is about another link in a chain of attacks. The accumulating warnings concerning revenge attacks relate to suicide attacks to occur within the Green Line.
At the same time, since the murder of Yihye Ayash, less than two weeks ago in Gaza, there has been a marked increase in the scope of live-fire Hamas attacks in Gaza and the West Bank. The day after Ayash was murdered, the Palestinian police in Gaza had already apprehended a Hamas gang en route to carry out an attack in Dugit, in northern Gaza. Last week, Hamas members carried out two live attacks involving gunfire and explosives near the Sufa checkpoint in southern Gaza. Two days ago, a Jew was shot in Bethlehem, and last night's attack 6 kms north of Hebron was apparently carried out by Hamas' military arm.
The current situation demonstrates that the assessments of the Central Command which anticipated heightened tensions in the areas, on the eve of the Palestinian Authority are being realized, with the Ayash murder acting as the trigger.
In the months prior to Ayash's murder, there were comparatively few attacks against Israelis in the West Bank. During the month preceding the withdrawal from Jenin mid-October through mid-November 46 incidents were recorded, nine involving gunfire. From the time of the Jenin withdrawal from Jenin until mid-December, there were 51 attacks in the West Bank, eight involving gunfire.
Over the past two weeks, this trend has taken a downturn. If until the death of Ayash, it was believed that Hamas and Palestinian Authority leaders had reached an understanding that Hamas terrorists would not disrupt the Authority's elections, on 13 January, Hamas leaflet #131 called for boycotting the elections contravening the commitment given to the PA. The internal disputes over cooperation with the PA, which took place between the Hamas leadership in the territories and Hamas leaders abroad, apparently ended following the murder of Ayash, with those carrying out the operations determining facts on the ground. It appears that the military arm of Hamas did not hear the assessment of the IDF Intelligence Branch, as given by the Branch's head to yesterday's meeting of the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, according to which an increase of attacks is likely to occur after the PA elections.
From the perspective of Hamas members, Hebron still remains outside the scope of the arrangements since it is still controlled by Israel. From the perspective of the Palestinian Authority, Area "A" where the attack occurred is considered a more "comfortable" place for attacks since it is under full Israeli control. From Israel's perspective, yesterday's attack only strengthens the Israeli demand that the Palestinian Authority disarm Hamas.
Hebron, however, is merely one link in the chain of attacks that have taken place since the murder of Ayash attacks which, according to security sources, will only escalate before the elections. The ramifications of these attacks are already evident on the ground, making their contribution to the poisoning of the atmosphere. If the Palestinian Authority had asked to station Palestinian policemen near the polling stations in Hebron, it is doubtful that Israel would now comply with such a request. Even the the IDF which, until now, had been more relaxed has become more sensitive and quicker to respond. An increased military presence coupled with a more sensitive response, will ensure an intensification of the friction between the military and the local population. And friction of this sort, only a few days before the elections, hides more than a few seeds of trouble.