A WORLD WAR - ANY MOMENT NOW - 31-Jul-96

(Commentary by Menachem Digli, "Ma'ariv", July 31, 1996, p. B3)

HUMAN SOCIETY IS NEARING THE MOMENT WHEN IT WILL EMBARK ON A WORLD WAR AGAINST TERRORISM, BUT IT IS DOUBTFUL IF ITS LEADERS UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS MORE URGENT TO INVEST IN INTELLIGENCE THAN IN SECURITY.

The attack in the Olympic Park in Atlanta, like the attack on the TWA plane before it (assuming that the latter was an attack), like the attack in Dhahran, like the shooting near Beit Shemesh, and like a slew of attacks which have been occurring for some time in many places around the world all have one common denominator: this is a war of organizations, groups and individuals, which are incapable of achieving what they want by the methods in which the game is conducted according to accepted rules, and which are not states (with territory, armed forces and a central authority accepted by their residents) which can go to war, in the absence of a political possibility for achieving what they want. These, since they are outside a framework and the law, lack restraints, and without fear of sanctions (since they lack a clear address and a vulnerable interest), resort to terrorism in order to deal with the frustration, in order to attack and obstruct the lives of their enemies, and in order to draw attention to their struggle.

It has already been said many times that terrorism cannot defeat states, but the fact that it operates over the long term, in many places, and usually attacks "soft" and sensitive points, can certainly interfere with daily life, cause entire populations to become tense and pressured, and place a heavy burden on those who are defending themselves against the damage it causes.

Each country, on its own, makes efforts (even if they are not always effective) to defend itself, to foil and even attack [terrorists]. The attempts that are made from time to time to organize in an international struggle against the phenomenon in its entirety, without paying attention to its specific sources, sputter and are do not turn into a permanent and continuous war. But the time will come when attacks on the ability to lead normal lives, fly and land in peace, go out and have a good time, see events, and board buses without fear, will leave no choice but to declare a real war on the phenomenon, on both a political level and the international level, such as may be organized.

This war has three fronts. The largest effort without which the other efforts will be useless is on the intelligence front. This effort when effort, means and top personnel are invested in it leads to an extensive and exact mapping of all of the ideas, organizations and individuals that preach the use of terrorism. Exchanges of accumulated information must be at the disposal of all those participating in the effort. The intelligence effort also reveals modus vivendi, weapons and equipment, methods and means of funding, movement of suspects around the world, and of course provides early warning. A terrorist incident which takes place on the ground takes weeks, months, and occasionally years, of preparation. It is accumulated intelligence which provides the possibility of preempting it several steps ahead and frustrating it while it is still being planned.

The second front which stems from intelligence is foiling and preventing. There is direct action, which attacks terrorism and its perpetrators according to specific information, at any time and any place, disrupts its actions and compels it to take steps to conceal and defend itself. But, as an emergency measure, aggressive steps must also be taken against terrorist elements, even if they have yet to act and have only made declarations about terrorism, or if they support it is a method of action. At times, this is liable to entail attacking the right of free expression, but in the case of a world war for the right to live without fear, this is an undeniable necessity and these statements also perhaps mainly apply to the various sponsors, including states.

The third front where most of the effort is being invested is the security front. The security systems are deployed at all places liable to be targeted. At specific targets (such as aircraft or airports), this is likely to be efficient but at massive public events, on buses or in the case of car-bombs in parking lots, security precautions are largely ineffective unless accompanied by prior warning. Routine destroys alertness, allocated manpower is limited and at targets such as these

a terrorist looking to vent his rage has a high chance of success. As such, to the extent that intelligence and preventive efforts are successful, security measures will be more effective, warnings will be forthcoming and (most importantly) security will be tested less often.

In terms of the principle underlying the approach to fighting terrorism, what is required is a determined decision, constant activity unrelated to actual levels of terrorism and extensive, ongoing cooperation between all bodies and countries involved in the campaign. Most of the effort must be invested in gathering intelligence and, once collected, it must be immediately provided to its various consumers. Those who receive the information must then take preventive action without delay, and act in accordance with such warnings.

But along with all this, the motives of terrorism must also be studied. And wherever it is possible to use dialogue as a means to remove this motive, such an opportunity must be taken, without shame.

The way of the world is to rise to action only once a sword is placed