Note: The translations of articles from the Hebrew press are prepared by the Government Press Office as a service to foreign journalists in Israel. They express the views of the authors.
THE ISLAMIC JIHAD RECEIVES ADDITIONAL PAYMENT FROM IRAN FOR EACH ATTACK
(Analysis by Ze'ev Schiff, "Ha'aretz", July 31, 1997, p.1)
The Islamic Jihad reached an agreement with Iran, in which they will receive a special bonus for each terrorist attack committed against Israel. Details of this agreement were made known recently and reported in various internal reports. However, authorized sources said that it should not be drawn from this that Teheran was in the know regarding yesterday's attack.
The Islamic Jihad's entire budget comes from Teheran, even though its headquarters is in Damascus. The decision to pay bonuses can be seen, beyond increasing the overall aid from Teheran, as express encouragement to the Islamic Jihad to continue to disrupt the peace process.
Both Hamas and the Islamic Jihad published broadsheets yesterday, claiming responsibility for the attack. There has been an internal debate within Hamas for the past few months on whether to resume terrorism. By comparison, the Islamic Jihad supports terrorism at every opportunity. Most of the Hamas leadership opposes resuming attacks, but there are signs of extremism among its leaders abroad. Those supporting continuing the pause claim that the peace process is crumbling in any case, and therefore there is no need to act now. It is not yet clear at this time if the internal debate within the organization has been decided, and if efforts have turned to a resumption of terrorism in light of Yasser Arafat's willingness to resume negotiations with Israel.
The government, and the man heading it, have not yet faced such a serious security situation. The question is if Netanyahu will chose to calm the internal pressures, both within his cabinet and within the right-wing camp, or to give in to external pressure from the U.S. His choice will determine the type of reaction and its extent. Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres were forced to give in to then internal pressures Rabin expelled 400 Hamas activists and Peres launched "Operation Grapes of Wrath". It is doubtful whether Netanyahu will behave any differently and not respond at all, especially since he conceded on the Ras al-Amud project and expressed willingness to resume negotiations with the Palestinian Authority.
Netanyahu can suffice with something called "an acceptable Zionist action", that will not be violent in and of itself, such as permitting building at Ras al-Amud or in settlements. He can suffice with limited military actions, and demand that the head of the Palestinian Police, who was involved in planning terrorist attacks against Israel, be fired. However, this is not an answer to the attacks by either the Islamic Jihad or Hamas. He could also undertake extensive military action, but this could harm the peace process and even cause loss of control.
Despite various reports, the "war games" carried out by the General Staff did not determine that extensive military action would necessarily end in heavy casualties. It was decided, however, that an extensive military action would not solve the complex political situation, and would merely return Israel to "the starting line". For this reason, the IDF does not support such an action, unless in extraordinary circumstances, as long as alternatives exist. The present case is fundamentally different.