HAMAS Will Attempt to Carry out Attacks to Frustrate Agreement

The signing of the agreement in Washington is supposed to reduce the likelihood of terrorist attacks. Assuming that a large-scale attack will hold up the implementation of the agreement, Hamas will not wish to be seen by the Palestinian public as the factor which prevented the handover of 13.1% of the national territory into Palestinian hands. It will also be especially important to the Palestinian Authority to demonstrate to the Americans their determination in the war on terror.

However, the security forces reject assumptions. "In the coming days," a senior military source told Ha'aretz, "the danger of terrorist attacks will heighten. Hamas has an interest in carrying out a large-scale act of terror as soon as possible. Their objective will be to foil the agreement, in the stage between signing and implementation."

The IDF thinks that in the eyes of Hamas, the agreement is a Palestinian surrender and a "trick", mainly because it includes the freeing of only a minority of the Palestinian prisoners -- the most important issue from the point of view of the public in the territories. The head of Hamas' political department, Khaled Masha'al, expressed the leadership's view at the weekend: Hamas, he said, would avoid a Palestinian civil war, out of a sense of responsibility, but "our rifles will remain trained on the Israeli enemy."

The expected Palestinian Authority's strengthened efforts against terrorism is likely to actually encourage the Hamas to carry out an attack quickly, before the PA changes its deployments and toughens its stance toward the Islamic organizations, and before the agreement is passed by the Israeli government and Knesset. Their main difficulty is operational: a number of senior operatives in the military wing -- Muhi a-Din a-Sharif, the Adel brothers and Amad Awdallah -- have been killed this year. Others, like Jamal al-Natshe, have been arrested by the PA. The wave of arrests organized by the IDF and the GSS has also hit at the operational infrastructure of Hamas. The analysis is that the Hamas is finding it increasingly difficult to carry out large-scale terrorist attacks. If indeed the organization is not able to carry out attacks within the Green Line -- and the security establishment is aware of a number of plans to carry out actions of this kind, which have been foiled recently, then the attempts to hit at soldiers and settlers in the territories may be expected to continue. One positive effect of the agreement is likely to be on the activities of the "Tanzim", the Fatah popular movement. In the last two months, the IDF considers, the Tanzim were involved in a number of shooting incidents, mainly in the Hebron area. These actions, in which there were no casualties, showed the frustration in the lower ranks of Fatah at the situation in the peace process. It may now be expected that Arafat will take a harder line and the PA will not permit attacks of this kind.

The security forces are also concerned by the response of the Israeli right to the agreement, especially the settlers. Against this background, monitoring of the extreme right has been increased in the last period. Security sources consider that while the possibility of "acts of despair" by Jewish terrorists cannot be ruled out, the likelihood of this is not high. The assumption is that the majority of the settlers will suffice with non- violent protests, such as demonstrations and the blocking of roads. Attempts to establish illegal settlements is likely to sharply increase, mainly in areas which are not being handed over to the PA, in an effort to create facts in the prelude to the permanent agreement.

There is likely to be an increase in threats on the lives of the ministers involved in signing the agreement. Two months ago, the papers were full of reports on the increased security around the prime minister and key ministers, out of fear of an attack on them by right wing elements. In retrospect, these publications have been shown to have been based on exaggerations by the various ministries. This time, if the political atmosphere heats up, security really will in all likelihood be beefed up.