(Commentary by Roni Shaked, "Yediot Ahronot", p.A18)
The Wye Plantation agreement appears more like a coerced deal to
temporarily restore peace between a couple on the verge of divorce.
The accord has not restored any trust between the leaders, and certainly
not between their peoples. Nor has it dispersed the tensions in their
relations. To the contrary, the suspicion and tension will now only
increase -- with each side using a microscope to examine the actions of
the other.
Arafat is certainly satisfied. From his perspective, the top priority is
to obtain territory -- which gives cause to continue the political
process. As long as he continues receiving territory, even only 13.1%, he
will be prepared to make various concessions.
Arafat now needs a 3-4 month halt to terrorism, during which he will seek
to prove that he is fighting Hamas and Islamic Jihad, ceasing incitement,
collecting weapons and arresting terrorists here and there -- all with
extensive media coverage. This will leave Israel with no choice but to
continue upholding the agreement and transferring more territory to his
control.
When the second redeployment is completed, Arafat will demand a third
redeployment -- not sufficing, obviously, with the 1% that Netanyahu has
proposed. Arafat will demand the acceleration of the final status
negotiations, including those on Jerusalem, refugees, settlements and
borders -- all extremely problematic issues. Time is pressing for Arafat.
His age, health, and mainly the promises that he has made to his people,
make it certain that, when the negotiations reach an impasse, he will
again threaten to declare independence on 4 May. Once that happens, the
negotiations will return to their starting point.