Jerusalem is not only Israel's largest city; it is also one of the fastest growing. This is due to a high birth rate and an influx of immigrants. Nor is the demographic make-up of the neighborhoods static: there is a high rate of intra-city migration, which contributes to the burgeoning population of the city's peripheral neighborhoods. As in other large cities around the world, these peripheral neighborhoods have benefited most from the population increase, while the city center and adjoining neighborhoods have shown a steady decline. Plans for future construction corroborate this trend; most building in the coming years will take place in the outlying neighborhoods.
This pattern will necessarily have a marked impact on the way the municipality manages the city. Services must be expanded constantly so that they encompass the new neighborhoods and address the needs of their diverse populations.
A1. INCREASE AND DENSITY
Jerusalem is Israel's largest city both in terms of population and total land area. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), at the end of 1995 Jerusalem's population was 591,400. The Jewish population was 417,000 (70.5%) and the non-Jewish population was 174,400 (29.5%). The total land area of the Municipality is 123,000 dunams (4 dunam = 1 acre).
In comparison, the populations of Israel's two other leading cities, Tel Aviv and Haifa, were given as 355,900 and 252,300 respectively (1995). Jerusalem's population is, therefore, 66% greater than that of Tel Aviv and 134% greater than that of Haifa. Nevertheless, the land area of Tel Aviv is some 51 thousand dunams and of Haifa, approximately 58 thousand dunams.
It is also necessary to consider Jerusalem's rapid growth rate: since 1985 the population has grown by 29%. The Jewish population grew by 27%, while the non-Jewish grew by about 34%. Most of this growth occurred only in the last few years. Since 1990 the population has grown by 67,000, or 13%.
Much of this growth is a direct result of the wave of Soviet immigrants that reached the country in the early 1990s. While in the second half of the 1980s Jerusalem's population was growing at 2.2-2.5% per annum, by the 1990s this had swelled to 3.7-4.0% per annum. In the past two years, the number of immigrants has tapered off, as has the rate of increase of Jerusalem's population, which now stands at only 2.2% per annum.
The Jerusalem Institute for Israel Studies estimates that the city's population will have passed the 650,000 mark by the year 2000. The Jewish population is expected to constitute about 70% percent of the total, and the non-Jewish population, approximately 30% (Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem, 1993).
A2. FACTORS BEHIND JERUSALEM'S POPULATION GROWTH
Jerusalem's population growth can be attributed to four factors:
- Natural increase (the ratio of births to deaths);
- The balance of migration (new arrivals vs. those leaving for other communities within Israel);
- Immigration;
- Emigration.
Furthermore, to understand the rapid growth of certain neighborhoods (and the decline of others), intra-city migration must also be considered.
The most important factor contributing to the overall increase in population in Jerusalem is certainly natural increase. Immigration is the second major factor.
In contrast, the number of people leaving Jerusalem in the past decade has been detrimental to the city, both quantitatively and qualitatively. This issue must be addressed with the utmost urgency. It is vital to the city's well-being to curb the number of those leaving Jerusalem and to encourage immigrants to settle in Jerusalem on a permanent basis.
Natural Increase
Jerusalem boasts a high rate of natural increase. Whereas in 1994 Israel's rate of natural increase was 14.9 per thousand, in Jerusalem it was 23.7. This can be broken down further into the Jewish population - 21 per thousand, as compared with 11.4 for all of Israel - and the non-Jewish population - 32 per thousand, as compared with 30.1 for the country's non-Jewish population (The Statistical Yearbook of Jerusalem, 1994). In fact, the high rate of natural increase can be largely attributed to two distinct communities: the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community and the non-Jewish community. In the 1980s the rate of natural increase constituted 80% or more of total population growth in the city. In the early 1990s, however, this figure dropped to approximately 50%, due to the large number of new immigrants then being absorbed in Jerusalem.
Crude Birth Rate, 1994
Another indication of Jerusalem's high rate of natural increase is the "crude birth rate," measured in births per thousand:
- Israel's national total: 21.1 per thousand
- Jerusalem: 28.9 per thousand
- Jews: 25.2 per thousand
- Non-Jews: 37.9 per thousand
- Tel Aviv: 15.7 per thousand
- Haifa: 13.3 per thousand
Jerusalem's crude birth rate is, therefore, significantly higher than both the national rate and the birth rate of Israel's other two leading cities, Tel Aviv and Haifa.
Immigration
Throughout the 1980s, Jerusalem was absorbing approximately 2,500 immigrants each year. This increased dramatically in the early 1990s: in 1990, 13,600 immigrants arrived; in 1991, 14,400; in 1992, 7,500; in 1993, 5,775; in 1994, 5,530 and in 1995, 4,800. The last number constitutes 6% of all immigrants that arrived in the country that same year.
Internal Migration (migration to and from Jerusalem)
Despite the overall population growth, the past decade has also witnessed a growing number of Jerusalemites leaving the city for other communities in Israel. In this period alone, the city's migration balance was negative to the tune of 30,000-27,000 of them in the past five years. Whereas in 1983 the negative balance of migration was less than 1,500 persons, in 1990 it had risen to 3,100, in 1991 to 5,600, in 1992 to 5,900, in 1993 to 6,149, in 1994 to 6,139 and in 1995 to 6,070. Young Jerusalemites and families in the labor force with children constituted the bulk of those leaving the city.
In 1992 almost 16,000 people left Jerusalem for other communities. In 1993, 16,600 people left, in 1994, approximately 15,500, and in 1995, 15,600. Over one-third of those leaving Jerusalem settled in satellite communities surrounding the city, particularly Ma'ale Adumim, Giv'at Ze'ev, Efrat, Betar Elit, and Beit Shemesh. One-quarter moved to the Greater Tel-Aviv area, particularly Tel Aviv proper and Bnei Brak.
Most of those leaving Jerusalem for communities on the citv's periphery cited housing costs as the chief factor behind their decision to move. Nevertheless, this population continues to rely on Jerusalem for employment, business, trade, commerce, and other services. Those that left for Tel Aviv cited more diversified employment opportunities as well as housing costs.
Among those leaving Jerusalem is a sizable number of new immigrants, who, after living in the city for several years, decided to try their luck elsewhere. In the past few vears a growing number of ultra-Orthodox Jews have been leaving the city, mainly for the more homogeneous communities of Betar Elit, Bnei Brak, and Telz Stone, where they can find less expensive housing.
Emigration
There is no noticeable pattern regarding the number of Jerusalemites emigrating from Israel. According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, 1,940 Jerusalem residents left the country in 1994.
Intra-city Migration
As in any large city, there is a high rate of relocation within Jerusalem itself. In 1991 the number of residents to migrate within the city was 18,000; in 1992 it was 28,000; in 1993, 33,000; in 1994, 32,000, and in 1995, 31,000 (all figures are approximations). For the most part, older neighborhoods near the city center are "losing" population to newer neighborhoods on the periphery. The neighborhood to benefit the most from internal migration is Pisgat Ze'ev; other neighborhoods to benefit include Ramot, Har Nof, Greater Sanhedriya, Talpiot, Arnona, and Beit Hanina.
There are also neighborhoods experiencing an extensive "exchange of populations", i.e., the number of people relocating to these neighborhoods roughly equals the number of those leaving. In most cases, this can be attributed to people leaving small and/or relatively inexpensive apartments for larger apartments and/or better neighborhoods-the population that replaces them is generally younger and/or of a lower economic status. The highest rate of population exchange occurs in the ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods of Me'ah Shearim, Beit Israel, Bucharim, Sanhedriya, and Tel Arza, and in Gonen, Ramot Alon, Neve Ya'akov, and Gilo.
A3. THE DISTRIBUTION OF POPULATION GROWTH
In the past several years, neighborhoods on Jerusalem's periphery have benefited most from the city's population growth. The following results are evident:
In this period the city grew about 10.3% per annum.
Neighborhoods in which the population growth was significantly higher than the city's average are: in the Jewish sector, the new neighborhoods of Pisgat Ze'ev (190%) and Manchat (137%), certain areas of Neve Ya'akov and Ramot, and Har Nof, Sanhedriya, Zikhron Tuvyah, and Nahalat Zion; in the non-Jewish sector, Beit Safafa, Kafr Aqb, Ras el-Amud, and Um Leisun.
Neighborhoods that experienced a significant decrease in population are: in the Jewish sector, Giv'at Hamivtar, Ramat Eshkol, Yefe Nof, Giv'at Oren, and part of Geulim; in the non-Jewish sector, the areas surrounding Atarot airport.
The Distribution of Population Growth 1990-1995 (62 KB)
A4. RESIDENTIAL BUILDING IN THE FUTURE AND THE PLANNED DISPERSAL OF JERUSALEM'S GROWING POPULATION
During the past few years, Jerusalem has benefited from massive building and development projects. To date, some 8,000 residential units are in the process of being built and many more are under various stages of planning and development. Most residential building for Jewish residents is now concentrated in the neighborhoods of Reches Shuafat, Giv'at Massuah, Pisgat Ze'ev, and Manchat.
According to the city's Master Plan for Transportation and the Department of Planning Policy, the city can accommodate an additional 96,000 residential units (based on existing plans and plans in the process of approval). This would include some 69,000 units in the city's Jewish neighborhoods and over 25,000 units in the non-Jewish neighborhoods.
The greatest potential for residential construction exists in the city's outlying neighborhoods, both Jewish and non-Jewish. The pattern of future population dispersal has far-reaching implications on the physical and social infrastructures that must be developed in those areas slotted for future residential construction.
Map: Areas with the Greatest Potential for Residential Construction 1996 (119 KB)