Israel Projects Presentation- Surface Transportation

The demand for road infrastructure in Israel has grown six-fold in the past 25 years, while the carrying capacity in the same period grew at a lower rate, due to the relatively low investment in developing the road networks. This disparity is reflected in the fact that while the overall road surfaces (urban and inter-urban) less than doubled in the last 25 years, the amount of traffic on the roads for the same period increased, by an average of 7.5% a year.

According to the overall forecast in the June 1995 Trans-Israel Highway Company report, use of the road infrastructure will continue to grow at a relatively rapid rate for the coming decade, will then grow at a more moderate rate and in total the annual traffic of the countrys vehicles will grow 2.2 times between the years 1993-2020, in other words, an annual growth of 3%.

While this constitutes a relatively moderate growth rate, it still necessitates substantial expansion of the road system capacity, which poses a double challenge: to improve the level of service of the road system for the present traffic scope, and to increase the road capacity to absorb the projected additional traffic.

The Trans-Israel Highway (Highway 6) constitutes one of the answers to the existing and anticipated shortage in nation-wide road capacity. Its establishment is expected to ease the anticipated traffic congestion on the north-south roads running the length of the country (Roads, 2, 4, 40 and others), will shorten the travel time between Jerusalem, the center and the north and south of the country, and at the same time will promote construction along the eastern strip of the central district and Haifa as an alternative to further crowding of the coastal plane.

Highway 6 is slated to be the main artery in the general north-south direction of the countrys road system, from the Negev up to two branches in the Galilee. It will cross most of the existing and planned roads running widthwise across the country, and will connect via interchanges to all the highways and main roads and to some of the regional roads crossing it. Together with other main roads, its establishment will facilitate smooth transportation connection between and within various regions of the country.

The highway is planned as a two-way multi-lane expressway (between 2-4 lanes in each direction), with high planning and safety criteria, providing a high level of service to those using it. All connections along Highway 6 will be via interchanges of varying levels, depending on the type of road crossing it and the anticipated traffic scope. Furthermore, several regional roads will cross it on a separate level (above or below), without any connection between them and Highway 6.

The central section of the highway, 134 km long including 20 interchanges, will be variably developed, providing two-level connection between Highway 6 and the roads crossing it.

Geographical framework: On account of the length and nature of the highway, the geographical framework analyzed includes all the areas of the country, as well as the Palestinian Authority (in two alternatives).

Time framework: The forecast period is up to the year 2020.

Traffic: All types of vehicular traffic in the target years were analyzed, in terms of the number of vehicles and in terms of comparable vehicle units (cvu). Private vehicle traffic (decisive weight in overall travel) is calculated in detail, with the remaining vehicle-type traffic added by inflating private vehicle traffic to overall traffic (according to factors of two hour and two year differentials).

Periods of the day: Traffic was analyzed for Sunday through Thursday, for 4 periods of the day: morning peak hours (7-9), regular morning hours (9-12), afternoon peak hours (16-19) and evening hours (21-24). Based on these hours the traffic was analyzed for the whole day.

For each target year, a basic demand forecast was made for transportation analysis purposes. Within the study process, scenarios are based on the population and its spread, occupation and its spread, mobility level, public transportation level, state regulations and others.

The Base Scenario was prepared under the following assumptions:

• Geographical spread of the population - it is assumed that the peripheral districts will grow at a relatively rapid rate (particularly the northern district), while the part of the population in the Tel Aviv and central district of the whole country will decrease slightly. Within these districts the internal spread will change, according to the New Master Plan for the Central District (Central Master Plan 3), with a drop in the metropolitan core and increase along the eastern borders in the area of Modiin, Shoham, Rosh Haayin, Kochav Yair etc. (located in the vicinity of Highway 6).
• The mobility level of the Israeli will grow rapidly, and in 2010 will be almost double that of 1992.
• Public transportation - By the year 2010, train service between and within Tel Aviv and Haifa will be expanded, but no new train lines will operate between Jerusalem and the south. Motorized public transport will experience minimal change: exclusive routes will be dedicated in additional road sections, and the service level will improve slightly for this and other reasons.

A Peace Scenario assumes employment, economic and transportation integration between Israel and the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The scenario was examined for morning peak hours in the year 2010 which showed that travel on Highway 6 may grow by some 15% as compared with the Base Scenario. About one fifth of this additional traffic will stem from the use of Highway 6 as a bypass road for internal travel from one point to another within the West Bank. Together with the increased traffic on Highway 6, there will be an increase (in some cases at a higher rate) of traffic on the roads from the West Bank and Gaza Strip to Israel and where relevant on Highway 6 interchanges. In addition the following scenarios were drafted:

During the course of the study 4 scenarios were developed for the geographical spread of the population and places of employment in the country for the target years. The differences between them are mainly in distribution in the center of the country. As stated, the Base Scenario assumes a relative drop in the weight of Tel Aviv and other Dan region cities in the entire TA metropolitan area, and enhanced growth of the eastern sector of the metropolitan area.

The opposite alternative to this is the Density Scenario, which assumes a static metropolitan core status, and slow growth along the metropolitan borders, including the Highway 6 strip. This alternative was used at the start of the study as a sensitivity test for morning peak hours in the year 2010.

This scenario assumes massive investment in developing the train network in Israel, and its operation on a high service level, and evaluates the influence of this scenario on the demand for vehicular travel on the roads, including on Highway 6.

The scenario in which there is maximal development of the railway system by the year 2010 includes completing all development plans for a commuter train in the metropolitan Tel Aviv and Haifa areas, and developing inter-urban lines to Beer Sheva and Eilat, and an express Tel Aviv - Jerusalem and Tel Aviv-Ashdod-Ashkelon line. The scenario was examined during morning peak hours for the year 2010 under the assumption that in this extensive network the train would operate at high frequency, with the stations highly accessible. It was found that under these optimal conditions the train could reduce vehicular traffic on the national road system by 7% and on Highway 6 by 6%.

This scenario was drafted as a test of sensitivity of the project outcome to the growth rate in mobility level. Accordito this scenario the mobility level in the year 2020 will be about 16% lower than that of the Base Scenario. Under these conditions, it was found that the traffic on Highway 6 will decrease by 7.5% in the year 2010, as compared with the Base Scenario, and by 8.7% in the year 2020.

For the purposes of traffic and economic analysis different levels of development were defined for Highway 6. These levels refer to the length of the highway - short (between Iron and Sorek) or long (between Tut and Ahuzam) and the width of the highway - narrow (2,3,2 lanes per direction) or wide (3,4,3 lanes per direction) as intermediary stages in developing the highway. 12 different alternatives were defined and evaluated.

Length	Width	Target year
Highway 6	Highway 6	2000	2010	2020
Short	Narrow	+	+	+
Short	Wide	+	+	+
Long	Narrow		+	+
Long	Wide		+	+
X	X	+	+	+

Legend:

The study assumption regarding the level of development of the interchanges along Highway 6 was that in the target years the interchanges would be developed sufficiently well so that no traffic disturbances would be caused on the highway, and the time needed to cross from highway to highway via the interchange would be minimal.

In the year 2000, according to the short (86 km from Iron to Sorek) and narrow (2-3 lanes per direction) construction format, the average daily traffic volume in the central sections (between roads 44-57) according to the setting results will be about 84 thousand comparative vehicle units (cvus) in the two directions. At the northern end of the highway the anticipated daily volume is 63 thousand cvus and at the southern end 50 thousand. The highway will carry about 6.6% of the overall national traffic volume (in terms of cvus).

In the year 2010 - in the long (134 km) and wide (3-4 lanes per direction) construction format, the traffic volume on the highway is estimated at about 127 thousand cvus per day on average in the central sections (between roads 44-57), and in the northern and southern ends the anticipated daily traffic is about 80 thousand cvus. The highway will serve about 12.3% of the overall national traffic volume (in terms of cvus).

In the year 2020 - with a similar construction format to that of 2010, the average daily traffic volume in the central sections will increase to 195 thousand cvus, with the volume at the northern and southern ends of the highway 120 and 116 thousand cvus respectively. The highway will serve about 12% of the overall national traffic volume (in terms of cvus).

Highway 6 will save approximately 6,900 cvu hours (and double the number of passenger hours) between the hours 7-9 in 2000, in the short and narrow format. This value will increase to 21,000 and 22,000 cvu hours in 2010 and 2020 respectively (long and wide format). This saving in time will also be enjoyed by many travelers not using Highway 6, as traffic from various sections of the road system will be diverted to Highway 6. In the year 2000 Highway 6 will save a total of some 60 million travel hours, with the value increasing gradually to 200 million hours in 2020.

According to the government ministry plans, the population will increase considerably and development centers will be established on the land belts adjacent to Highway 6, once it is established. The areas in the vicinity of Highway 6 are slated for new settlements and the existing settlements adjacent to the highway are expected to increase. A partial list of new planned settlements along the highway alignment as well as a list of settlements slated for rapid expansion, from north to south are:

• Iron - a new town planned in the Menashe Hills near Ein Hashofet, with potential to house about 100 thousand residents.
• Katzir and Hadish - settlements at the southern opening of Wadi Ara, with a potential to house some 15 thousand residents.
• Socho - Employment zone planned close to the junction between the Trans-Israel Highway and Road 57 (potential of 10 thousand workers).
• Kochav Yair, Zur Yigal and Kfar Yona - an additional 50 thousand people in these existing towns.
• Tzomet Kassem - (junction of roads 5 and 6) - a large employment zone, with potential for 35 thousand work places.
• Rosh Haayin - the town is to be expanded, with the addition of 30-60 thousand residents.
• Mazur (Elad) - 6,500 housing units slated to house a potential population of 27 thousand people.
• Shoham - approval has been granted for 7,300 housing units, to house up to 26 thousand people.
• Modiin - the towns population is expected to reach 100 thousand by the year 2010.
• Development zone east of Ramla - the zone could house large scale logistic and industrial activities, with an employment potential of up to 20 thousand workers.
• Tel Tzafit - A 8,000 thousand sq. m. tract of land close to the junction between Road 7 and Highway 6 north of Kiryat Gat. While the land is currently designated for construction and industry, due to its location at the Ashdod-Jerusalem, Tel Aviv-Beer Sheva crossroads, ultimately it may be zoned for more intensive land uses.
• Kiryat Gat - a settlement with growth potential of about 25-30 thousand people in the planning period.

Paving costs - Only those costs entailed in paving Highway 6 were taken into account. and range between $720 million for the minimum alternative to $1.2 billion for the maximal alternative (1994 prices), as presented in the table below:

Alternative	Alternative	Cumulative cost to year
Length	Width	2000	2010	2020
Short (86 km)	2-3 lanes	718	718	852
Short (86 km)	3-4 lanes	763	763	898
Long (134 km)	2-3 lanes		952	1,096
Long (134 km)	3-4 lanes		1,036	1,170

The economic analysis points to very high feasibility for the economy in paving the Trans-Israel Highway. The most feasible alternative according to the current net value is the maximal option (Alternative 12), i.e. a highway 86 km long, 3-4 lanes wide in each direction by the year 2000 and 134 km long from 2010 on with the same width. The net present value of this alternative comes to $34 billion (April 1994 prices) at a discount rate of 4%. The internal rate of return is 34.55%, with profit in the first year covering 38.6% of the investment in the highway.

At the same time, the net present value of Alternative 12 is only slightly higher (0.5%) than that of Alternative 11, which is similar to Alternative 12 except for the width in year 2000 - 2-3 lanes per direction. The net present value of other alternatives examined (alternatives 1-10, where the highway is shorter and/or narrower in year 2010-2020) is significantly lower in relation to that of Alternatives 11 and 12.

Sensitivity tests - for Alternative 12 different sensitivity tests were calculated by altering the parameters and main assumptions, which influence the cost estimate or profitability of the highway. None of the sensitivity tests (including the most extreme: not taking into account the value of passenger time saved in each type of travel) altered the feasibility of investment in the highway. The internal rate of return remained at a level of 18% and more, as indicated in the table below.

Nature of sensitivity test	Internal rate of return (%)	% return for first year out of total investment
Base Scenario	34.6	38.6
20% added to paving cost	32.1	32.6
50% added to paving cost	29.2	26.3
Savings in operating costs only (Time saving value = 0)	17.6	6.5

h. Summary

The Trans-Israel Highway has an important role in solving the shortage of ronation-wide, particularly in easing the traffic flow on roads the length of the country. The highway will operate as an established inter-urban highway, which will serve most of the long distance inter-urban travel in Israel. The highway will shorten the travel time between the north and south of the country and between them and the center of the country and Jerusalem, and will constitute an important economic link in worker transportation and for integrating sections of the country.

At the same time, the highway will promote the development of land uses along the eastern strip of the center and Haifa as an alternative to continued crowding of the coastal plane. The highway may also be significant following normalization of relations with the Palestinians, and may facilitate international travel once peace is achieved with the neighboring countries.

It is recommended that the highway be paved between Iron and Sorek (about 86 km) by the year 2000, and be extended to Tut interchange in the north up to Ahuzam in the south by the year 2010, to the maximal length of 134 km evaluated in the study. The recommended ultimate width of the highway is 3-4 lanes in each direction (from year 2010).

Investment in the highway is estimated at approximately $ 720 million (April 1994 prices) for the short term up to 2000, growing to approx. $1.2 billion by 2020. It appears that this investment will be feasible, as the net present value of the highway stands at more than $34 billion. Return on investment to the economy will be within 2-3 years and the proposed return on capital invested is about 35% annually. Even a reasonable sensitivity test does not refute these significant results. In terms of the economy the paving should be expedited so as to obviate loss of profits to the economy in the region of about $ 250 million for every year of delay.

The high anticipated return from the investment in the Trans-Israel Highway renders it a national transportation project in which private investors can be involved by operating it as a toll road. The Government is now conducting a tender to select a concessionaire to plan, finance, construct, operate and maintain the highway under a Build-Operate-Transfer (B.O.T.) basis.

a. Description of the Project and Alignment

The Carmel Tunnels Project entails the paving of a main expressway in the city of Haifa which will connect the western entrance of the city, from the Carmel Beach district, to the Krayot Junction (Check Post), the northern entrance. The project will impact on the entire transportation system of the city, and once completed will significantly alleviate the citys traffic congestion. The road will be 6 km long, 4.8 km of which will tunnel through the Carmel Mountain.

The road is slated to link three active sites:

• The Carmel Beach area, a district governed by leisure, resort, and sport activities as well as science-based industry to the west of the city;
• Rupin Road area, residential suburbs on the Carmel Mountain;
• Krayot Junction on Haifa Bay, adjacent to commercial, shopping and light industry centers.

The project comprises two pairs of tunnels, each with two, one-way traffic lanes:

1. Western tunnels: from the Carmel Beach area through Rupin Road in the Carmel Mountains, 3.1 km long with a longitudinal slope of 3.2%.
2. Eastern tunnels: From the Carmel Mountain to the Krayot Junction, 1.6 km long with a longitudinal slope of 6%.

Due to the length of the tunnels, ventilation will be required, and will be provided by fans installed in the tunnel ceiling.

At the entrances to the tunnels there will be three interchanges for the convenient and smooth merging of traffic into and out of the tunnels. The tunnels will be constructed in the following areas:

• Carmel Beach area (this interchange will include toll booths)
• Rupin Road area (this interchange crosses a wide rift and entails extensive bridging).
• Krayot Junction - Check Post (this interchange will include toll booths).

b. Traffic Volume Estimates

The anticipated traffic demand for travel in the tunnels for the years 2000 and 2010 is presented below. The figures reflect toll-free daily vehicular traffic.

A toll charge will have significant implications for the traffic volume. The higher the toll, the smaller the volume of traffic using the tunnel. The project developer will have to take this into account in determining the toll rate.

The project encompasses interchanges and roads, tunnels, and toll systems, with the toll booths to be located at the interchanges joining the tunnels. The plan has been approved by the Local Council of Haifa, and has been submitted for approval by the District Committee of Haifa and the North. A proposed bill for charging a toll was submitted by the ministries of finance and transportation, and is awaiting Knesset approval.

Initial planning of the alignment and typical sections have been completed., with detailed planning to be completed by the developers. To date, the following stages have been completed:

Preparation of bid materials; archeological details; planned changes in the road network, to be paid by the state.

Archeological rescue excavation and removal.

Planned for 1997: Completed removal, tunnel project management (supervision, quality control, etc.), paving the access roads (connecting Hanefach Street to the future opening of the tunnel entrance at the Check Post).

The prequalification having been completed, the estimated timetable is for detailed planning and commencement of work by the end of 1997, with completion and operation of the project slated for 2000.

The project cost is estimated at approx. $105 million over three years of execution, which is to be carried out by a private developer. Cost of preparing the bid, clearing the area, archeological excavations and making the changes in the existing road network is at the expense of the state, and is estimated at approx. $24 million.

a. Description of the Project and Alignment

A mass transit system for Tel Aviv is intended to be the backbone public transportation system for Tel Aviv and its neighboring towns. The system includes a network of lines for main public transportation routes in the Tel Aviv metropolitan area, which will serve primarily travelers to the central core of the city. The systems metropolitan lines will run to the cities of Bat Yam, Holon, Rishon Lezion, and Herzliya but in combination with the Israel Railway (Railway 2000 Project) an expansive system will be created which will include rail access to other towns in the district, including Petah Tikva, Rehovot, Netanya, Ashdod, and others.

The basic alternatives examined to date are:

• System based on buses which will travel on main routes in special lanes for public transportation.
• Light train which will travel along the same routes as the general traffic and along other routes via a separate passage right.
• System centered around an express train, part of it underground, which will travel via a separate passage right.

In reality it is expected that the system to be designed will entail the combination of the above technologies, which will be chosen according to demand, technological-operational advantages, service level, financial costs and availability of passage rights. A system based on bus lines will feed the main system.

Neither the system lines nor the transportation technology have been defined. At this stage feasibility studies are being conducted, the results of which will determine the structure of the network, system technology, feed line system and the implementation stages - the first line to be implemented.

The city of Tel Aviv is a metropolitan and national business hub, and as a result, is a major travel destination. The citys infrastructure system, including its accessibility, has problems coping with the resulting traffic volume, particularly private vehicles. If Tel Aviv is to remain the business hub, it will be necessary tmake accessibility more efficient, which can be accomplished only through improved public transportation.

The main objectives of the mass transit system are:

• To provide a sound solution for public transportation in Tel Aviv;
• To create an integrative system of all means of public transportation in the Tel Aviv district;
• To provide improved level of service and accessibility;
• To reinforce the land use system of Tel Aviv and support the master plan for the Tel Aviv district.

c. Availability and Timetable

The feasibility study which commenced in 1995 has been completed. Milestones in the project implementation are:

An initial estimate of the investment required for the first alternative centered on a subway is $2.5 billion.

Financing for initial availability including feasibility study, completing statutory procedures, and project management will be provided by the Ministry of Transportation and Tel Aviv Municipality through a joint government company.

Financing for the project implementation has not yet been determined. Consideration is being given to establishing the project on a B.O.T. basis, which combines funding the establishment and operation by private developers in return for operational rights and/or other financial arrangements by the state.

The cost of acquiring passage rights, project management and other items will still be borne by the state and by local authorities.

a. Description of Project and Alignment

The light train is meant to provide the main infrastructure for the public transportation system in Jerusalem. The system is based on rail transport technology which enjoys significant priority in infrastructure, separate from other vehicles and with right of way at intersections. The arterial system will include the main transportation corridor lines, which will serve primarily travel to the city center.

The basic alternatives being examined at present are:

• System based on buses which will travel along main routes in special lanes for public transportation.
• Light train which will travel partly with the general traffic and on some routes on separate passage rights.

Neither the system lines nor the travel technology have been defined. In reality the system that is planned could combine rail + public transportation technology, according to the scope of demand for transportation corridors, availability of passage rights and costs.

At this stage a feasibility study of the project is underway to determine the system, line structure and preferred technology. At the end of the study decisions will be made regarding the preferred system and implementation stages.

The main objectives of the Light Train Project are:

1. To provide a sound solution for Jerusalems public transportation;
2. To reinforce the land use system of Jerusalem;
3. To make accessibility and traffic arrangements more efficient and in so doing to ease the congestion in the center of the city.

According to a 1994-1995 survey, regular municipal public transportation is used by some 450 thousand passengers daily.

The daily traffic forecast of passengers using the light train is as follows:

With the feasibility study completed, the following milestones have been set for the project:

It is estimated that the first stage of the system will be operational by the year 2002.

The total cost of the light train is estimated at $ 500 million, with $200 million estimated for the first stage.

Cost components are:

Sources of project financing have not yet been determined. The alternative under discussion includes government/public financing, financing by the private sector (B.O.T.) and others. Financing for the first stage will be provided by the government.

The Israeli railway sector is undergoing structural changes in preparation for the transport challenges that lie ahead. All railway activities are about to be concentrated in one governmental company that will operate under a license from the Minister for National Infrastructures. The private sector will be encouraged to take part in the construction and operation of railway lines, and the Minister for National Infrastructures will have the authority to issue new licenses or transfer existing ones to private contractors (separate licenses may be given for construction and maintenace of the line and for operation of the rolling stock).

In order to gain experience in the construction and operation of a line by the private sector, the government has decided to issue an international tender for a pilot project based on the B.O.T. scheme, with no government financing.

In addition to the plans that have been completed for the development of a suburban railway network in the Tel Aviv Metropolitan area, and its connection to existing inter-city lines, new international freight lines and inter-city lines are in the planning. International contractors and specialists in the transport field can play an important role in shaping Israels future railway sector.